Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds. The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.
This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m.
For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still holds up. It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.
For optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.3 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. If you see a different line the Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.
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