Canucks vs. Stars Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks conclude the NHL week with a late-night Sunday game, with both teams searching for a much-needed win. The Canucks have four wins through their first 11 games of the season, while the Stars are treading water with four through their first 10. Although both teams are floundering in the standings, one team has a marked advantage from an analytics perspective.
Stars Appear Headed for Surge
The Stars aren’t as bad as their 4-4-2 record implies. Dallas has strong supporting metrics, especially at five-on-five, which supports it is a progression candidate. Moreover, the Stars have seen a recent surge in game scores, which indicates the time to win is now.
Dallas’ 52.0% expected goals-for percentage is the 13th-best in the league. The Stars have also been running hot over their recent sample, outplaying three of their past four opponents, with a cumulative 60.7% rating. The Stars are spending less time on the penalty kill, which has facilitated a boost to their expected goals-for percentage across all strengths, jumping to 58.1% over their past four.
Despite the solid relative metrics, the results haven’t gone the Stars’ way as they have only one win over their recent sample. That disconnect between actual and expected is growing, and the pendulum should start swinging in the Stars direction.
Canucks, Meanwhile, Not So Much
The Canucks have less to be optimistic about. They have the second-worst expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five and have overachieved relative to their production. What clearly illustrates their ineptitude, the Canucks have outplayed only three of their 11 opponents this season.
After starting the season with seven straight road games, Vancouver has been shacked up at home for its last five. It has done nothing with the home-ice advantage, dropping four of those five games. The Canucks’ lone win was an overtime victory over the New York Rangers, which was their best outing of the season.
Sunday’s game is also a nightmare matchup for the Canucks. Vancouver’s offense has been unable to generate offense at five-on-five, attempting seven or fewer high-danger chances in six of its past seven. Scoring chances have been equally scarce, as the Canucks have attempted more than 21 just twice this season. They will have a hard time creating chances against a Stars squad that allows an average of 20.2 scoring and 7.5 high-danger chances.
Canucks vs. Stars Pick
The betting market is overvaluing the Canucks and their perceived home-ice advantage. Dallas is due for a few more wins, and the implied probability (53.5%) of the betting price (-115) doesn’t accurately reflect their chances tonight. We’re betting the Stars perpetuate the Nucks’ early-season woes and walk away victorious.
Pick: Stars -115
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